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At the intersection of weather, tech, art, and math
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2024-12-24

The situation in Ft. Myers Beach is not likely to improve as onshore fetch continues the rest of the afternoon and evening. This area is probably ground zero for Ian's fury and surge, and is in a similar position as Mexico Beach was during Michael with hours of right-side eyewall

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Local chases aside, that wraps up

Lots of blood, sweat, tears, & miles. But I was incredibly privileged to roam the Southwest for a month, watching storms over some of the most amazing scenery on Earth.

I've learned so much.. I'm already looking forward to 2023!

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Fire wx may be a bigger issue than the severe wx aspect of next week's storm system. Some absolutely ridiculous area-averaged soundings in W TX next week. 20+ kt synoptic winds w/ 70/-15 spreads for an RH of ...3%. Unidirectional flow with 120 kt 300mb jet streak overhead.

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This is no doubt one of the most insane model runs I've ever seen from the GFS.

365 inches of snow, 23" of liquid equivalent. Through just Day 10.

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The GFS shows an impressive outflow pattern tonight over enhanced by an outflow channel from the ULL over TX. It also advertises low shear. Given evidence of an inner core forming, I think Zeta has serious intensification potential tonight during the diurnal max.

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West of Ardmore, SD earlier this afternoon, when the Lusk WY - Campbell NE supercell was in my opinion the most photogenic. Had shades of Satanta before this. Lack of roads provided challenges in getting closer to this storm and better shots.

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