Dr. Levi Cowanさんのイラストまとめ

As bad as #Ian will be for southwestern #Florida, an important trend today is an increasing threat to northeastern Florida.

Ian may now emerge over water east of Florida. Its interaction with a northeasterly belt of cool air could cause high winds and coastal flooding Wed-Thurs:

Hurricane #Agatha is nearing landfall in #Mexico. Its remnants will likely track into the southern Gulf of Mexico this week.

An upper trough to the NW will likely yield a sloppy system with heavy rains on east side that could impact the Yucatan, Cuba, & Florida by the weekend.

Models expect the upper trough over GOM to dredge moisture northward out of central America, leading to a potential TC near eastern Mexico in a couple days. Northward track means rainfall could get into Texas even if track goes into MX. Uncertainty high until something coalesces.

A big development with #Delta today is the continued motion south of yesterday's forecasts. With Delta still down near 16N, risk is decreasing for Grand Cayman, but markedly increasing for Cancun, Mexico, just days after being hit by Gamma. Delta likely to be much more dangerous.

Tropical Storm #Gamma (was TD25) has strengthened overnight as expected, and now has max winds near 60 mph according to recon data. Further strengthening is possible before landfall in a few hours.

#TD25 has formed, and will approach Mexico on Saturday. Strengthening is favored today. Max winds forecast to be ~45 mph near Mexico by NHC. In worst-case scenario, if inner core forms quickly today, could be closer to 60-80 mph. Regardless, flooding primary hazard for the region

The large-scale pattern late this week consists of a strengthening jet streak over the SE US, which means upper-level divergence over southern GOM and NW Caribbean that favors convection. With a tropical wave entering the region simultaneously, need to watch for storm formation.

The very first signs of shear adversely affecting #Laura's core are apparent. This flare-out of cold cloud tops (black/gray) in the SW quad is a tell-tale sign. However, that doesn't mean Laura has stopped strengthening. We'll find out when the next plane arrives in ~2 hours.

Look for Atlantic tropical activity to significantly pick up after this MJO event passes ~60W around Aug 20, which is when climatological activity also begins peaking.

Doesn't mean we won't get more storms before Aug 20 - but there may be a reasonable lid on activity until then.

(1/3) Some important model trends today for #Cristobal include earlier occlusion in the GFS, which means a symmetric moisture ball wraps up sooner (green colors). The result is a transition from subtropical to a tighter tropical structure just before landfall.