Dr. Levi Cowanさんのイラストまとめ

Meanwhile in the Bay of Bengal, the developing tropical cyclone there appears stronger today than most model guidance predicted this early. Several days before landfall yet, but this storm is guaranteed to bring dangerous impacts to SE Asia and/or India next week.

Invest #98L SW of the Azores is also developing, and has the appearance of a tiny subtropical or tropical cyclone embedded within a large upper-level trough.

Key observation from sat imagery is the banded convective core and small radius of maximum wind. Tropical-like structure.

Surface and radar observations indicate that #Karen has become gradually better organized today as shear has decreased. Central pressure appears to be around 1004 hPa, and the circulation is now more compact and less tilted than yesterday. Flooding a big concern tonight for PR.

Recon is struggling to find NW winds in #Karen, and an Earth-relative closed circulation may be a transient feature that comes and goes today at the whim of convective changes. Given that the storm is not expected to dissipate, per se, we're unlikely to see advisories dropped.

Still can't sleep on the gulf disturbance, which has an elliptical but closed circulation.

Slow movement expected, and it may be Tues night before it comes ashore, so a quick TS is not out of the question.

Regardless, lots of rain coming. 6+ inches forecast along coastal TX.

[#NerdTweet] With this gulf disturbance, if sfc low rotates to NE side of the upper low, shear decreases, and erosion of the +PV anomaly via diabatic heating would allow favorable interaction.

If SW flow is maintained over the disturbance, though, development chances much lower.

This is as extreme as it ever gets. Prayers for the Bahamas. And Florida, don't sleep on this one. We still cannot guarantee that #Dorian will stay offshore. Be ready just in case.

Dude, no. I don't accept this.

#AlaskanInFlorida #SendHelp

#Michael continuing to construct an inner core tonight, a continued sign of a maturing hurricane. So far there are no indications that Michael won't become very strong, as forecast

#Michael has become a hurricane.

Expected to strengthen into a major hurricane (max winds around 120 mph) before landfall in Florida Panhandle on Wednesday.

Life-threatening storm surge, wind, and inland flooding expected.

Get prepared and heed evacuation warnings!