Mighty Muffinsさんのイラストまとめ

There's HOPE...for late season storm chance for Albany now for Monday. I am liking this shortwave and while the MLCAPE is low...that's misleading as the 500mb shortwave will do most of the work here.

Might be last chase potential day for 2022 up here as Fall kicks in next week.

Now I get it. And MLCape is supporting it. Well..............I guess my old stomping grounds of Saratoga County and Clifton Park and points North are my play. Good cause that will be an easy drive from Albany and I know the areas extremely well and my locations of choice. >:)

Yeah I think I have to do it. I think I will have to storm chase Tuesday in MA or CT. Will be a 1-2 hr drive pending where I go but this set up and I have my prime spots in mind from years past....this may be the last alright set up for the Northeast for 2022 and I want it.

We likely will be cookin' in Albany on Friday. Definitely chase day before going to Philly Fri-Sun.

-SPC already got the MRGL out.
-NAM does overkill stuff but GFS is hinting good storm Friday.
-Decent Bulk Shear
-Solid temps/dew points
-Nice 500mb shortwave
-Decent CAPE too.

Yeah once these morning storms clear out there will be enough instability left to kick off a tornado or 2 around Albany and upstate NY. Shame again no car and limited to my bike. :|

If I had a target spot I'd be up in Clifton Park, NY...but limited to just Albany and one spot.

Ok going to bed.....that was a brutal long 13 hour long overnight shift.

There is a lot of directional shear on this as all winds will be coming from the SW but....there's not a lot other than the thermal forcing of the day to ride these storms as this front is weak in terms of forcing left on it. Behind it though it has a lot of cool air.

NAM VS HRRR...kind of impressive how different they want stuff for tomorrow around Albany. Coming off overnight shift.....For sure I plan to chase tomorrow but I am gonna be on a wait and see approach on these.

I either will go where I did on Monday or just stay in Albany.

I am so fucking desperate for SOMETHING in Albany to pop. The set up for Sunday is hot sh*t....I mean CAPE ok...but there's NOTHING on this. I mean there is the main cold front more Monday but Sunday....whatever pops will be a garden variety storm.

I still could SPC put MRGL.

Kind of wild in a way how quickly the Midwest shuts down again after Thursday's big storms in Minnesota.

Granted the high plains is still where any severe stuff will mostly be but we are heading into that late Spring pattern where it's 90% the high plains where you will chase.