Mika Rantanenさんのイラストまとめ

Verification. ECMWF was closer to reality but not perfect either. https://t.co/yZ3FHtkQPf

@SimonLeeWx I noticed the same. Some models had ensemble mean SSW while some didn't.

For instance, Met Office and Meteo-France didn't. 1/2

@FabioSunwind @AriJLaaksonen @pekka_kangas 1850 ei tällä kertaa ole, mutta 1880 ja 1920 on.

Niihin vuosiin nähden Kilpisjärven kesäkuut ovat lämmenneet seuraavasti:

1920-2020: 1-2 astetta
1880-2020: 2-4 astetta

@kilpirinne_veli @mackke91 Vaikka Suomessa tammikuut ovatkin viimeisen 30 vuoden aikana hieman viilentyneet, globaalisti tammikuut ovat lämmeneet.

ECMWF vs. GFS

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

@AarneGranlund @khaustein Probably related to the ongoing disruption of the polar vortex. NAO/AO are negative and North Atlantic is relatively quiet. Strong high pressure over Siberia which extends also Finland.

Yesterday's ECMWF 12z run really reverse the polar night jet in the stratosphere, with -18 m/s (!) average zonal mean flow on 8 January 2021.

@myytinkertojat haha. Do you have any arguments supporting your claims or are you just hand-waving? November 1998 featured La Nina in Pacific with extensive cold in Siberia.

The first 10 months of the year have been up to 7°C warmer than normal in northern Siberia. That is a huge anomaly for such a long stretch of time.

Europe is under #heatwave. Increasing trends of heatwaves due to global warming is one of the most established fact in the climate change attribution studies.

This is how much hot days (Tmax > 30°C) have increased in Europe in 1961-2019: