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Echo State Network for two-dimensional turbulent moist Rayleigh-B\'enard convection. https://t.co/ONTEfuQYJb
Tunivect (Fire/Water): Convection is the transfer of heat through fluid movement. When a fluid is heated, they lose density and rise.
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Typhoon Goni is putting on an incredible show of force today. A clear stadium eye with intense ripping convection.
Will likely reach Category 5 status soon.
Invest 95L is looking rather healthy right now, been firing very deep convection over the center for the past several hours.
Satellite image currently indicates deep convection currently offshore the south coast of Jamaica. Sections of Jamaica should continue to receive showers that could be heavy enough to trigger flash flooding tonight into tomorrow. If you must go out tomorrow bring your umbrella.
The large-scale pattern late this week consists of a strengthening jet streak over the SE US, which means upper-level divergence over southern GOM and NW Caribbean that favors convection. With a tropical wave entering the region simultaneously, need to watch for storm formation.
#Teddy's eye is begnning to clear. Intense convection now flaring on all sides.
This has the appearance of a WPAC storm about to become a super typhoon. Thank goodness he's staying out to sea for the most part!
Very intense convection now wrapping all the way around #Teddy's eye. Soon we will see a major hurricane.
and with how impressive the structure is, I'd say it's a contender for an open-ocean Category 5 peak.
@pppapin @AndyHazelton @ToddKimberlain @webberweather Part of my thinking is that there's dry air to the N that might be getting entrained in the N side of the storm, as well as convection being ripped apart by the interaction, which is causing the one-sided favorability (given the opposite is occurring in the Caribbean side)
Hearing some talk about ex-#94L this afternoon. The closed, relatively well defined LLC has gotten convection, bringing it closer to TC status. Some dry air lurks nearby but there's a chance of sneaky development of it can maintain the convection
Concerning trends with #Isaias tonight.
The earlier radar hole now appears to becoming a bonafide eyewall with significant inbound & outbound velocities on KMLB radar. The low & mid-level center now appear aligned as convection axis-symmeterizes.
Tropical Storm #Isaias slowly reorganizing itself, with very intense convection. If it can align the vortex, strengthening will resume.
Won’t lie, the HWRF did a fairly good job at forecasting this convection burst, in fact, it looks almost like a spitting image tho smaller. Let’s see how it performs on the rest of the night.
Hurricane #Isaias is improving a lot this evening. Outflow to it's W is expanding while very intense convection is flaring in the eyewall. Likely beginning a round of intensification.
#Hurricane #isaias has a terrifying smile, defined by intense convection.
As a couple other mentioned, this wave to the SE of the Cabo Verde islands honestly looks like it could be very close to being a TD already. Convection has been asymmetric but persistent, and ASCAT shows a solid circulation with 30kt winds. Will be short-lived whatever it is.
Convection is going crazy this evening during diurnal minimum. Oh boy..
Fwiw, the EPS is consistently hinting at a massive uptick in E Pacific & W Atlantic convection near the end of June. This may result in a burst of NE Pacific tropical cyclones & perhaps a more favorable subseasonal state for tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic by early July.
Convection slowly but surely bubbling up near the center of 03L.
