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The January initialisation of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) shows La Niña (colder sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific) developing by August.
The last 5 days of 2019 look to have temperatures considerably above average across vast regions of Europe. Map shows forecast temperature departures from average.
As weather patterns change to low pressure becoming established and persisting over the Arctic and subarctic, we see a significant change to the Arctic Oscillation index - which becomes strongly positive. @WorldClimateSvc
Considerable rainfall expected for large parts of Portugal and Spain over the next few days. The map gives an indication of totals (mm) to the end of Saturday (map credit: @metdesk)
We achieved a new wind power record on Thursday (12.58GW) and we’re expecting to beat it again on Sunday, with approx 13.13GW (transmission system metering installed and visible to National Grid) #renewableenergy
Jet stream "fingerprints" can be seen on November's surface temperature anomaly map - with colder than average in N & W Europe, and much warmer than average in the E & SE. @WorldClimateSvc
The Arctic Oscillation index is forecast to change from negative to positive. A large spread in the ensemble members is noted but a strong signal can be seen. If this happens, low pressure will replace the high pressure over Greenland, far N Europe & W Russia. @WorldClimateSvc
How is the year shaping up in terms of temperature against the latest 10 year climate average (2009-2018)? Using the ERA5 reanalysis from the boys @WorldClimateSvc, Jan-Oct has been colder in large parts of North America and notably warmer in Alaska & a large area of Russia.
October was relatively dry from Iceland to Finland then south to Ukraine, the Balkans, Italy & Turkey, as well as S Iberia. Large parts of Wales, England, France, the Low Countries, Switzerland, Germany & S Sweden were wetter than average. @WorldClimateSvc